Currency Forecast – Analysis of Forex Trends

Forex Trends – Currency Forecast: week 7/01/12 – 7/06/12

Currency forecast (weekly) – an overview of the forex trends for the past week with likely developments for the next week.

 
EUR/USD: The recent downtrend is over for now.

Some clear signs of a developing uptrend can be seen at this time. At this point technical indicators showing that the recent downtrend is over for now. The pair looks a little bit overbought above 1.2650. It means the chances are we will see a small dip prior to the price resuming its way north.

The “bigger picture” is bullish at this time. Again, the indicators suggest that the new uptrend is here. Possibility of low volatility is significant for the next couple days.

Range between 1.2700 and 1.2550 is likely for this week – oversold condition below 1.2550 and overbought above 1.2700.

Common indicators should be fairly accurate in pointing to the direction of the price on the hourly or shorter charts.
 

Update 07/06/12: The uptrend is over as of today. The pair looks oversold below 1.2350.

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GBP/USD: The longer outlook has changed to the bearish at this time.
 
The pair gained more than 200 pips since the last Thursday since a new risk appetite. It likely will erase all this gain during the incoming weeks. On that note, we can see a small rally in the next couple days. The price likely will fall to the vicinity of 1.5500. It still can bounce back from 1.5600. Still chances for unstable volatility. The pair likely will start to look oversold a bit below 1.5500 so a range between 1.5500 and 1.5700 is likely for this week. The longer outlook has changed to the bearish at this time.
 

Update 07/06/12: No major surprises here as well, so far the outlook has not changed. “The center of gravity” moved south a little.

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USD/CHF: Uptrend is over for now.
 
The pair lost about 200 pips since the last Thursday. Indicators point to a recent uptrend is over and a new downtrend is forming. The pair likely will look oversold a bit below 0.9450 – so the chances are we will see the price rally very modestly above this level. For the next week the price likely to stay within 0.9400 – 0.9550 range, and unlikely to deviate very far from these levels. The longer outlook is bearish at this time.
 

Update 07/06/12: Uptrend as of today. The pair looks overbought 0.9700.

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USD/CAD: Short-lived uptrend is over.
 
The pair lost about 200 pips since the last Thursday. It can rally very modestly from 1.0150 prior to continue going south. The price likely will stay within 1.0100 – 1.0250 for the next week. The longer outlook is bearish at this time.

Update 07/06/12: No major surprises here. Still overall downtrend. The pair overbought a bit above 1.0200.

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Currency Forecast – Analysis of Forex Trends