Forex Weekly Trends: 4/8/12 – 4/13/12

Forex weekly trends – an overview of the trends in the forex market for the past week with likely developments for the next week.

 
EUR/USD: The downtrend is slowing down. A modest rally is likely during this week

During the last week the pair lost more that 300 pips due to classical so-called “risk aversion.” The fall was slowing down toward the end of the past week.

The pair looked oversold a bit below 1.3050 so the chances are that we will see shortly a modest rally – probably something in a ballpark of a hundred pips during this week. It will likely try to teach 1.3150 in the next couple days. At this point it looks like it will be overbought somewhat above 1.3150 so the price likely to stay within this range. The same scenario likely to play over and over again during this week – a modest rally followed that corrects itself. The “bigger picture” is still mildly bearish. Similarly to the last week, unstable volatility is very likely.

Range between 1.3050 and 1.3150 is likely for this week – oversold condition below 1.3050 and overbought above 1.3150.

Common indicators should be fairly accurate in pointing to the direction of the price on the hourly or shorter charts.

Should be plenty of scalping opportunities at this time.
 

GBP/USD: No much clear directional trend – choppy price movements.
 
The pair lost about 200 pips during the last week but recovered a little toward the end of the last week. No upward or downward momentum can be seen at this time. We will likely see a choppy price action during this week. The pair likely will start to look oversold a bit below 1.5800 and somewhat oversold above 1.5950. At this point it seems unlikely that it may test 1.6000 – extremely important technical level during the next several days. A range between 1.5800 and 1.5950 is likely for the week. The longer outlook is still bearish at this time.
 

USD/CHF: Upward momentum is likely to pause.
 
The pair gained about 200 pips during the last week. This development is very unlikely to continue during this week. The pair likely will look oversold below 0.9100 and overbought above 0.9250. For the next several days the price is likely to stay within 0.9100 – 0.9250 range and unlikely to deviate very far from these levels. The longer outlook has is still bullish at this time.
 

USD/CAD: Likely back to parity .
 
The price came within a reach of the parity toward the end the last week. It very likely will reach the parity during this week. It likely will look overbought above the parity so the chances are the price will gravitate back to the parity prior to climbing higher. The price likely will stay within 0.9950 – 1.0050 range during this week. The longer outlook is still neutral – slightly bullish at this time.

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