Currency Rates Forecast – Analysis of Forex Trends. Update 06/26/12.

Forex Trends – Currency Rates Forecast: Week 6/24/12 – 6/29/12

Update – 06/26/12

Currency rates forecast (weekly) – an overview of the forex trends for the past week with likely developments for the next week.

 
EUR/USD: The recent downtrend is likely to continue into the next week.
 

Some clear signs of a developing downtrend could be seen by the end of the last week. At this point technical indicators showing that this downtrend is likely to continue into the next week. The pair likely will look a little bit oversold below 1.2500 (major technical and psychological support level). It means the chances are we will see a modest rally while to the price resuming its way south. A rally is a brief spike in the price during the downtrend.

The “bigger picture” is bearish at this time. Again, the indicators suggest that the new downtrend is here. Possibility of rising and unstable volatility is still significant during the incoming week.

Range between 1.2600 and 1.2400 is likely for this week – oversold condition below 1.2400 and overbought above 1.2600.

Common indicators should be fairly accurate in pointing to the direction of the price on the hourly or shorter charts.
 

Update 06/26/12: No major surprises here, so far the pair behaved pretty much as expected. The price likely is going to hang out around 1.2500 for a bit.
 

GBP/USD: The longer outlook is bullish at this time.
 

The pair lost about 200 pips since the last Wednesday and likely to lose more during the next couple days. A classical dip as a part of uptrend. It likely will fall to the vicinity of 1.5500 and bounce back. Naturally this can be accompanied by declining volatility. The pair likely will start to look oversold a bit below 1.5500 so a range between 1.5500 and 1.5650 is likely for this week. The longer outlook is still bullish at this time.
 

Update 06/26/12: No major surprises here as well, so far our analysis looks accurate and the outlook has not changed.
 

USD/CHF: Uptrend is likely to continue.
 

The pair gained about 100 pips since the last Thursday – as expected pretty much. Indicators point to a new uptrend. The pair likely will look overbought a bit above 0.9600 – so we can see the price dipping very modestly below this level. For the next week the price likely to stay within 0.9550 – 0.9700 range, and unlikely to deviate very far from these levels. The longer outlook is bullish at this time.
 

Update 06/26/12: Still no change in the outlook.
 

USD/CAD: Rally as a part of an overall downtrend .
 

The pair gained about 100 pips since the last Thursday. The rally likely will continue for the next couple days. The price likely will stay within 1.2000 – 1.3500 for the next week. The longer outlook is bearish at this time.
 

Update 06/26/12: The price acted as expected but the outlook is neutral right now and some signs of a new forming uptrend can be observed at this time.

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